(Bloomberg) — A JPMorgan Chase & Co. indicator is flashing a resounding buy signal in US stocks, after it hit a threshold that typically precedes better-than-average gains.
The bank’s US Tactical Positioning Monitor, which measures clients’ exposure to American equities, hit a level that reflects an “attractive set-up” for the S&P 500 Index, according to a note Wednesday from a team led by Andrew Tyler, JPMorgan’s head of US market intelligence. The stock gauge has historically gained around 3% in the subsequent 20 days after a similar four-week change in positioning, compared to a roughly 1% gain in all periods, according to the note.
US stocks are up so far this week as solid corporate results lifted the S&P 500. The index is coming off a three-week slide spurred by worries that interest rates will remain elevated for months to come. The focus this week is on technology behemoths, with results from Meta Platforms Inc. due after the close Wednesday and Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. on deck Thursday. Friday brings the latest reading of a key inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, and investors will be looking for signs price pressures are cooling.
“The tactical bounce appears poised to continue with the keys being megacap tech earnings and PCE releases this week,” Tyler wrote. “Should all of these hit, you may see markets overshoot to the upside but feels like buy-the-dip has kicked in.”
He said the current setup is akin to that of August and October, when US stocks also staged subsequent comebacks.
Earlier this week, the bank’s chief market strategist, Marko Kolanovic, said in a note to clients that the selloff in stocks isn’t over yet as macroeconomic risks mount, including rising bond yields and elevated oil prices.
While it’s not unusual for firms to have different views under one roof, the disconnect at JPMorgan has popped up since last year. In August, for example, the trading desk team called for all-time highs on the S&P 500 at a time when Kolanovic was sticking to a bearish stance. Kolanovic represents JPMorgan’s house view.
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