Will BTC momentum weaken at $150K-$160K? This data suggests so…
- BTC topped $107K amid increased optimism of a likely US national reserve.
- Kraken whales placed sell orders at $150K-$160K price targets.
On the 16th of December, Bitcoin topped $107K on growing hopes of the US creating a national BTC reserve.
The enthusiasm could make the next $110K target reachable, but Kraken whales eyed $150K-$160K price levels.
According to BTC on-chain analyst, Bitcoindata21, Kraken whales’ sell orders above $150K mirrored the early 2024 trend which muted the cryptocurrency momentum below $80K. He said,
“Kraken whales are starting to tell us where bitcoin price is going to slow down in the coming months. Some sell orders above, that could be similar to those that stopped price appreciation earlier this year.”
Source: X
BTC’s growing demand
BTC’s recent all-time high (ATH) above $107K was boosted by strong spot market demand.
According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, sell pressure from large players has eased amid increasing demand. He said,
“Bitcoin OTC desks are seeing their largest monthly balance decline so far this year, -25k Bitcoin, as demand continues to grow. Additionally, their balance has fallen by 40k Bitcoin since November 20.”
Source: CryptoQuant
For context, OTC (Over the Counter) Desk Balance, represents sell pressure from large players that don’t use centralized exchanges. Its decline is a positive sign for BTC’s upside.
The increased investor appetite for BTC could push it higher and hit the expected $120K-$150K targets.
Interestingly, the current price action closely followed Polymarket’s odds of the US creating a BTC reserve.
The odds surged from 25% to a high of 40% on Monday, corresponding to BTC’s jump from $94K to $107K over the same period.
Source: Polymarket
At press time, the odds eased slightly to 38% as BTC slipped to $106.5K. This suggested that the US BTC reserve was the next key catalyst for the expected $120K-$150K targets or beyond.
Now, does that mean the widely anticipated pullback was not a concern?
Well, the pullback risk was still there, at least per elevated profitability as tracked by aSOPR. Historically, BTC hit a local top when the metric tapped the first or second band as profitable holders cash out.
As of this writing, the metric was close to hitting the first band, suggesting that a pullback was still on the cards.
Source: Glassnode