Ether’s price drop is driven by weak reactions to new crypto ETFs in Hong Kong and an anticipated hawkish tilt from the Federal Reserve.
On April 30, the price of Ether
ETH
$2,960
dropped roughly 6% to around $3,024, its lowest level in over a week. The cryptocurrency’s drop mirrored similar downside moves elsewhere in the crypto market, with the net capitalization falling by approximately 4%.
The primary factors contributing to the decline in Ether’s price include the lackluster response to the newly launched crypto-linked spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong and the expected hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.
Let’s explore these influences in detail.
Hong Kong crypto ETFs bomb on launch day
The six crypto ETFs that launched in Hong Kong on Tuesday significantly underperformed, achieving a combined trading volume of only $11 million, well below the anticipated $100 million. Of this total, Bitcoin ETFs generated $8.5 million, with Ether ETFs accounting for the remainder.
This performance starkly contrasts with the $655 million first-day trading volume of U.S.-based spot BTC ETFs, which debuted on January 11. Since their launch, nearly a dozen of these ETFs have attracted almost $12 billion in investor funds.
However, recent inflows have slowed, hampering Bitcoin’s upward trend and dragging positively correlated cryptocurrencies like Ether down as well.
FOMC meeting is hurting ETH price
Ether’s price decline today appears to be due to concerns that the Federal Reserve may stick to its hawkish messaging at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on May 1.
According to CME data, expectations for interest rate cuts have been postponed to later in 2024, with investors now forecasting no more than two reductions by year’s end. This adjustment is largely attributed to persistent inflation and a lagging U.S. economy.
The crypto market has shown declines leading up to recent FOMC meetings, exemplifying heightened investor caution.
For example, the market valuation decreased by over 10% prior to the March FOMC meeting and experienced a roughly 5% decline before the January meeting. In response, top coins like Bitcoin and Ether dropped.
Such behavior illustrates how investors adjust their positions to manage risk in response to anticipated shifts in monetary policy.
ETH/USD bull flag correction
Ether’s price decline today is part of a downtrend occurring within what appears to be a bull flag pattern.
A bull flag pattern emerges during an uptrend when the price consolidates after a strong upward movement. This consolidation forms a descending parallel channel as the price makes lower highs and lower lows.
As of April 30, the price of ETH was pulling back after reaching the upper trendline of a bull flag earlier in the week, with potential declines expected toward the lower trendline at around $2,760 in May.
This lower trendline aligns with both the 200-day exponential moving average (the blue wave) and a significant resistance level from January 2024.
However, a bull flag completes when the price decisively breaks above the upper trendline, often leading to a continuation of the initial rally. The expected rise following the breakout is typically proportional to the height of the prior uptrend.
That said, ETH price could rally toward $5,250, up 75% from the current price levels, by June if the bull flag plays out as intended.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.